Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Sep 29, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2182
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 6
WN 2182 · AUS → JAX
departs 12:09 PM CT · arrives 3:39 PM ET
Forecast issued Sun 9:00 AM ET · 52h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Tue 10/6
Wed 10/7 9%
Odds over time
Arrive at JAX more than 15 minutes late?
15%
chance · ±2 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
15%
Leave 15+ late
11%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
7%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
4.0d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at JAX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed – in 24h
–
15%
Yes 15%
No 85%
Leave AUS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed – in 24h
–
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Arrive at JAX more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed – in 24h
–
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
How late will it get to JAX?
On time or early
79%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
7%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Gusts to 27 kt, cloud base down to 300 ft, 1.9 in of rain forecast at JAX that day
↑
12pm departures from AUS are often late
↑
This flight has been late 22% of the time recently
↓
Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at AUS
Weather at each end
AUS (origin)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
JAX (destination)
Gusts 29 kt Ceiling 500 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip 2.40 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.