Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Sep 29, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2245
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 6
WN 2245 · BUR → OAK
departs 1:32 PM PT · arrives 2:50 PM PT
Forecast issued Sun 7:00 AM ET · 58h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Tue 10/6
Wed 10/7 8%
Odds over time
Arrive at OAK more than 15 minutes late?
9%
chance · ±1 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
9%
Leave 15+ late
9%
Arrive 1h+ late
2%
Cancelled
1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
3%
6%
9%
12%
4.2d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at OAK more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed – in 24h
–
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Leave BUR more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed – in 24h
–
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Arrive at OAK more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed – in 24h
–
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to OAK?
On time or early
90%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
1%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Other factors
↑
1pm departures from BUR are often late
↑
BUR is prone to delays
↓
Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
WN's recent on-time record
Weather at each end
BUR (origin)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 5 mi Precip none
OAK (destination)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 2 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.