Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Sep 29, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2383
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 6
WN 2383 · LAX → SMF
departs 7:15 PM PT · arrives 8:42 PM PT
Forecast issued Sun 4:00 AM ET · 66h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 10%
Mon 10/5 6%
Tue 10/6
Wed 10/7 13%
Fri 10/9 8%
Odds over time
Arrive at SMF more than 15 minutes late?
12%
chance · ±2 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
12%
Leave 15+ late
21%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
4.4d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SMF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed – in 24h
–
12%
Yes 12%
No 88%
Leave LAX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed – in 24h
–
21%
Yes 21%
No 79%
Arrive at SMF more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed – in 24h
–
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 100%
How late will it get to SMF?
On time or early
87%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Arrivals into SMF at that hour are often late
↑
7pm departures from LAX are often late
↓
Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SMF
Weather at each end
LAX (origin)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 1,800 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip none
SMF (destination)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.