Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Sep 29, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2420
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 6 Tomorrow
WN 2420 · STL → ECP
departs 1:55 PM CT · arrives 3:45 PM CT
Forecast issued Mon 3:00 PM ET · 24h before departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at ECP more than 15 minutes late?
16%
chance · ±2 pts
+4 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
16%
Leave 15+ late
17%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
2%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
4.1d
2d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ECP more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Leave STL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 17% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
17%
Yes 17%
No 83%
Arrive at ECP more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to ECP?
On time or early
83%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 500 ft, 0.5 in of rain forecast at ECP that day
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
This flight has been late 24% of the time recently
↓
Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at STL
Weather at each end
STL (origin)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
ECP (destination)
Gusts 22 kt Ceiling 500 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.51 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.