Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Sep 29, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2439
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 6
WN 2439 · ORF → MCO
departs 9:54 AM ET · arrives 11:57 AM ET
Forecast issued Sat 6:00 PM ET · 64h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Tue 10/6
Wed 10/7 5%
Odds over time
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
8%
chance · ±1 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
8%
Leave 15+ late
9%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
2%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
3%
6%
9%
12%
3.9d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed – in 24h
–
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Leave ORF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed – in 24h
–
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Arrive at MCO more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to MCO?
On time or early
90%
15–30 min late
2%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 500 ft, 0.4 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at MCO that day
↑
ORF is prone to delays
↓
Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
WN's recent on-time record
Weather at each end
ORF (origin)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
MCO (destination)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 500 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip 0.38 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.