WN 245 · RSW → MCO

departs 5:38 PM ET · arrives 6:39 PM ET

Forecast issued Mon 6:00 PM ET · 24h before departure

Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?

44% chance · ±4 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to MCO?

On time or early
54%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
14%
Over 2 hours late
6%
Cancelled
3%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 600 ft, 1.2 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at MCO that day

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at RSW

↑ Arrivals into MCO at that hour are often late

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ MCO usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

RSW (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceiling7,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.15 in

MCO (destination) Gusts11 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility4 mi Precip1.19 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 245 · RSW → MCO

Odds over time

How late will it get to MCO?