Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Sep 29, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2463
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 6
WN 2463 · LIH → OAK
departs 9:09 PM HT · arrives 5:16 AM PT
Forecast issued Sun 5:00 PM ET · 58h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Tue 10/6
Wed 10/7 5%
Odds over time
Arrive at OAK more than 15 minutes late?
5%
chance · ±0 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
5%
Leave 15+ late
5%
Arrive 1h+ late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
3%
6%
9%
12%
4.6d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at OAK more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed – in 24h
–
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Leave LIH more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed – in 24h
–
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Arrive at OAK more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed – in 24h
–
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 100%
How late will it get to OAK?
On time or early
95%
15–30 min late
2%
30 min–1 hour late
<1%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Other factors
↓
9pm departures from LIH are usually not late
↓
Arrivals into OAK at that hour are usually not late
Weather at each end
LIH (origin)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 900 ft Visibility 9.33333 mi Precip none
OAK (destination)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 2 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.