Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Sep 29, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2519
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 6
WN 2519 · BNA → RIC
departs 3:40 PM CT · arrives 6:17 PM ET
Forecast issued Sun 3:00 PM ET · 50h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Tue 10/6
Wed 10/7 11%
Odds over time
Arrive at RIC more than 15 minutes late?
9%
chance · ±2 pts
−1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
9%
Leave 15+ late
14%
Arrive 1h+ late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
4.2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at RIC more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Leave BNA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Arrive at RIC more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 100%
How late will it get to RIC?
On time or early
90%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
3pm departures from BNA are often late
↑
This flight has been late 27% of the time recently
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at BNA
Weather at each end
BNA (origin)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
RIC (destination)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.