Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Sep 29, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2551
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 6
WN 2551 · MCO → BNA
departs 12:44 PM ET · arrives 1:42 PM CT
Forecast issued Sun 11:00 AM ET · 50h before departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at BNA more than 15 minutes late?
16%
chance · ±2 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
16%
Leave 15+ late
16%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
4.0d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BNA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed – in 24h
–
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Leave MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed – in 24h
–
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Arrive at BNA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed – in 24h
–
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to BNA?
On time or early
83%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 600 ft, 0.8 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at MCO that day
↑
12pm departures from MCO are often late
↑
This flight has been late 24% of the time recently
↓
Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at BNA
Weather at each end
MCO (origin)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip 0.78 in
BNA (destination)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.