Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Sep 29, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2584
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 6
WN 2584 · MCO → DEN
departs 6:15 PM ET · arrives 8:03 PM MT
Forecast issued Sun 3:00 PM ET · 51h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Tue 10/6
Wed 10/7 16%
Odds over time
Arrive at DEN more than 15 minutes late?
33%
chance · ±7 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
33%
Leave 15+ late
44%
Arrive 1h+ late
12%
Cancelled
2%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
4.3d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DEN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed – in 24h
–
33%
Yes 33%
No 67%
Leave MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed – in 24h
–
44%
Yes 44%
No 56%
Arrive at DEN more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed – in 24h
–
12%
Yes 12%
No 88%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to DEN?
On time or early
66%
15–30 min late
16%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 700 ft, 0.8 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at MCO that day
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
6pm departures from MCO are often late
↓
Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at DEN
Weather at each end
MCO (origin)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 700 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.54 in
DEN (destination)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.