Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Sep 29, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2598
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 6
WN 2598 · MCO → LAS
departs 5:04 PM ET · arrives 7:00 PM PT
Forecast issued Sun 11:00 AM ET · 54h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Mon 10/5 44%
Tue 10/6
Wed 10/7 13%
Fri 10/9 31%
Odds over time
Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?
33%
chance · ±5 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
33%
Leave 15+ late
38%
Arrive 1h+ late
13%
Cancelled
2%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
4.2d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed – in 24h
–
33%
Yes 33%
No 67%
Leave MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed – in 24h
–
38%
Yes 38%
No 62%
Arrive at LAS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed – in 24h
–
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to LAS?
On time or early
66%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 600 ft, 0.8 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at MCO that day
↑
5pm departures from MCO are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LAS
Weather at each end
MCO (origin)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip 0.78 in
LAS (destination)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.