Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Sep 29, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 25
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 6
WN 25 · TPA → SDF
departs 8:05 AM ET · arrives 10:18 AM ET
Forecast issued Sun 5:00 PM ET · 39h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Tue 10/6
Wed 10/7 6%
Odds over time
Arrive at SDF more than 15 minutes late?
6%
chance · ±0 pts
−3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
6%
Leave 15+ late
4%
Arrive 1h+ late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
3%
6%
9%
12%
3.8d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SDF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Leave TPA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Arrive at SDF more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SDF?
On time or early
93%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
1%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 800 ft, 0.6 in of rain forecast at TPA that day
↑
SDF is prone to delays
↑
TPA is prone to delays
↓
Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
Weather at each end
TPA (origin)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 800 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip 0.56 in
SDF (destination)
Gusts 7 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.