Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Sep 29, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 273
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 6
WN 273 · MBJ → MCO
departs 1:00 PM EST · arrives 4:03 PM ET
Forecast issued Sat 11:00 PM ET · 63h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 23%
Tue 10/6
Wed 10/7 14%
Thu 10/8 15%
Sat 10/10 22%
Odds over time
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
30%
chance · ±9 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
30%
Leave 15+ late
27%
Arrive 1h+ late
11%
Cancelled
3%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
4.1d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed – in 24h
–
30%
Yes 30%
No 70%
Leave MBJ more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed – in 24h
–
27%
Yes 27%
No 73%
Arrive at MCO more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed – in 24h
–
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed – in 24h
–
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
How late will it get to MCO?
On time or early
68%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
3%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
0.9 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at MCO that day
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at MBJ
↑
Arrivals into MCO at that hour are often late
↓
Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Other factors
Weather at each end
MBJ (origin)
Gusts — Ceiling — Visibility — Precip —
MCO (destination)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 2,400 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.86 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.