Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Sep 29, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2769
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 6
WN 2769 · TPA → BUF
departs 6:59 PM ET · arrives 9:47 PM ET
Forecast issued Sun 3:00 PM ET · 52h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Tue 10/6
Wed 10/7 11%
Odds over time
Arrive at BUF more than 15 minutes late?
22%
chance · ±4 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
22%
Leave 15+ late
31%
Arrive 1h+ late
7%
Cancelled
2%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
4.3d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BUF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed – in 24h
–
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Leave TPA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed – in 24h
–
31%
Yes 31%
No 69%
Arrive at BUF more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed – in 24h
–
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to BUF?
On time or early
77%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 800 ft, 0.9 in of rain forecast at TPA that day
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
6pm departures from TPA are often late
↓
Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at BUF
Weather at each end
TPA (origin)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 800 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip 0.56 in
BUF (destination)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.