Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Sep 29, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2796
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 6 Tomorrow
WN 2796 · MDW → PHX
departs 8:17 PM CT · arrives 10:06 PM MT
Forecast issued Mon 7:00 AM ET · 38h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Tue 10/6
Wed 10/7 12%
Odds over time
Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?
14%
chance · ±1 pts
+2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
14%
Leave 15+ late
27%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
4.4d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Leave MDW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 26% · changed +7 pts in 24h
+7 pts
27%
Yes 27%
No 73%
Arrive at PHX more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to PHX?
On time or early
85%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
8pm departures from MDW are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
PHX is prone to delays
↓
Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at PHX
Weather at each end
MDW (origin)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
PHX (destination)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.