Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Sep 29, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2811
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 6
WN 2811 · MCO → PHL
departs 3:42 PM ET · arrives 6:13 PM ET
Forecast issued Sun 1:00 PM ET · 51h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 4%
Tue 10/6
Wed 10/7 14%
Odds over time
Arrive at PHL more than 15 minutes late?
28%
chance · ±11 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
28%
Leave 15+ late
28%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
4.2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at PHL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed – in 24h
–
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Leave MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed – in 24h
–
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Arrive at PHL more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed – in 24h
–
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to PHL?
On time or early
71%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
13%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 600 ft, 0.8 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at MCO that day
↑
3pm departures from MCO are often late
↑
This flight has been late 31% of the time recently
↓
Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at PHL
Weather at each end
MCO (origin)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 700 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.78 in
PHL (destination)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.