Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Sep 29, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2860
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 6
WN 2860 · SEA → DEN
departs 6:56 PM PT · arrives 10:27 PM MT
Forecast issued Sun 2:00 PM ET · 56h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Tue 10/6
Wed 10/7 17%
Odds over time
Arrive at DEN more than 15 minutes late?
16%
chance · ±1 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
16%
Leave 15+ late
18%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
4.4d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DEN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed – in 24h
–
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Leave SEA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed – in 24h
–
18%
Yes 18%
No 82%
Arrive at DEN more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed – in 24h
–
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 100%
How late will it get to DEN?
On time or early
84%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
This flight has been late 30% of the time recently
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
6pm departures from SEA are often late
↓
Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at DEN
Weather at each end
SEA (origin)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 3.53333 mi Precip none
DEN (destination)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.