Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Sep 29, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2905
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 6
WN 2905 · TPA → STL
departs 6:26 PM ET · arrives 7:48 PM CT
Forecast issued Sun 3:00 PM ET · 51h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Tue 10/6
Wed 10/7 14%
Odds over time
Arrive at STL more than 15 minutes late?
28%
chance · ±5 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
28%
Leave 15+ late
27%
Arrive 1h+ late
7%
Cancelled
1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
4.3d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at STL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed – in 24h
–
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Leave TPA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed – in 24h
–
27%
Yes 27%
No 73%
Arrive at STL more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed – in 24h
–
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to STL?
On time or early
71%
15–30 min late
16%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 800 ft, 0.9 in of rain forecast at TPA that day
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
6pm departures from TPA are often late
↓
Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at STL
Weather at each end
TPA (origin)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 800 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip 0.56 in
STL (destination)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.