Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Sep 29, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2944
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 6
WN 2944 · MSY → MCO
departs 3:01 PM CT · arrives 5:44 PM ET
Forecast issued Sun 5:00 AM ET · 59h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Tue 10/6
Wed 10/7 14%
Odds over time
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
39%
chance · ±9 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
39%
Leave 15+ late
32%
Arrive 1h+ late
12%
Cancelled
3%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
4.2d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed – in 24h
–
39%
Yes 39%
No 61%
Leave MSY more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed – in 24h
–
32%
Yes 32%
No 68%
Arrive at MCO more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed – in 24h
–
12%
Yes 12%
No 88%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
How late will it get to MCO?
On time or early
59%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
14%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
8%
Cancelled
3%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 700 ft, 0.9 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at MCO that day
↑
Arrivals into MCO at that hour are often late
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at MSY
↓
Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
MCO usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
MSY (origin)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 6,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.05 in
MCO (destination)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 700 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip 0.88 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.