Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Sep 29, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2953 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Tuesday, October 6

WN 2953 · MTJ → DEN

departs 9:51 AM MT · arrives 10:50 AM MT

Forecast issued Sun 9:00 AM ET · 51h before departure

Arrive at DEN more than 15 minutes late?

8% chance · ±1 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to DEN?

On time or early
92%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
<1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into DEN at that hour are often late

↑ Other factors

↑ DEN is busy at that time

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DEN

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

MTJ (origin) Gusts17 kt Ceiling9,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

DEN (destination) Gusts14 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 2953 · MTJ → DEN

Odds over time

How late will it get to DEN?