Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Sep 29, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3041
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 6
WN 3041 · OGG → SAN
departs 8:45 PM HT · arrives 5:02 AM PT
Forecast issued Sun 3:00 PM ET · 60h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Tue 10/6
Wed 10/7 10%
Odds over time
Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?
7%
chance · ±0 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
7%
Leave 15+ late
7%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
3%
6%
9%
12%
4.6d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed – in 24h
–
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Leave OGG more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed – in 24h
–
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Arrive at SAN more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed – in 24h
–
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SAN?
On time or early
92%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
SAN is prone to delays
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Other factors
↓
Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
8pm departures from OGG are usually not late
Weather at each end
OGG (origin)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
SAN (destination)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 2 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.