Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Sep 29, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3126
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 6 Tomorrow
WN 3126 · MDW → JAX
departs 6:16 PM CT · arrives 9:26 PM ET
Forecast issued Mon 2:00 PM ET · 29h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Tue 10/6
Wed 10/7 15%
Odds over time
Arrive at JAX more than 15 minutes late?
31%
chance · ±0 pts
+9 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
31%
Leave 15+ late
25%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
2%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
4.3d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at JAX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed +9 pts in 24h
+9 pts
31%
Yes 31%
No 69%
Leave MDW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed +9 pts in 24h
+9 pts
25%
Yes 25%
No 75%
Arrive at JAX more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −5 pts in 24h
−5 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to JAX?
On time or early
67%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
13%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Gusts to 25 kt, cloud base down to 700 ft, 1.7 in of rain forecast at JAX that day
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
6pm departures from MDW are often late
↓
Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at MDW
Weather at each end
MDW (origin)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
JAX (destination)
Gusts 25 kt Ceiling 700 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 1.74 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.