WN 3126 · MSY → MCO

departs 3:21 PM CT · arrives 6:11 PM ET

Forecast issued Tue 12:00 PM ET · 4h before departure

Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?

35% chance · ±0 pts −6 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to MCO?

On time or early
65%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
18%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 500 ft, 0.6 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at MCO that day

↑ Arrivals into MCO at that hour are often late

↑ 3pm departures from MSY are often late

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ MCO usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

MSY (origin) Gusts17 kt Ceiling1,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

MCO (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility4 mi Precip0.62 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 3126 · MSY → MCO

Odds over time

How late will it get to MCO?