Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Sep 29, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3205
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 6
WN 3205 · LAX → TUS
departs 5:27 PM PT · arrives 6:54 PM MT
Forecast issued Sun 6:00 AM ET · 62h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Tue 10/6
Wed 10/7 16%
Odds over time
Arrive at TUS more than 15 minutes late?
17%
chance · ±2 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
17%
Leave 15+ late
16%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
4.4d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at TUS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed – in 24h
–
17%
Yes 17%
No 83%
Leave LAX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed – in 24h
–
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Arrive at TUS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed – in 24h
–
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 100%
How late will it get to TUS?
On time or early
82%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
This flight has been late 33% of the time recently
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Arrivals into TUS at that hour are often late
↓
Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at TUS
Weather at each end
LAX (origin)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 1,800 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip none
TUS (destination)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.