Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Sep 29, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3215
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 6
WN 3215 · MSY → LGA
departs 8:54 AM CT · arrives 12:51 PM ET
Forecast issued Sun 5:00 AM ET · 53h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Tue 10/6
Wed 10/7 18%
Odds over time
Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?
9%
chance · ±2 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
9%
Leave 15+ late
10%
Arrive 1h+ late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
3.9d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed – in 24h
–
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Leave MSY more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed – in 24h
–
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Arrive at LGA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed – in 24h
–
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to LGA?
On time or early
91%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
<1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
LGA is prone to delays
↑
This flight has been late 24% of the time recently
↑
MSY is prone to delays
↓
8am departures from MSY are usually not late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LGA
Weather at each end
MSY (origin)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 6,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.05 in
LGA (destination)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.