Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Sep 29, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3286
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 6
WN 3286 · DEN → MCO
departs 11:04 AM MT · arrives 4:36 PM ET
Forecast issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 45h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Mon 10/5 31%
Tue 10/6
Wed 10/7 14%
Fri 10/9 32%
Odds over time
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
19%
chance · ±6 pts
+3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
19%
Leave 15+ late
19%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
4.0d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Leave DEN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Arrive at MCO more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MCO?
On time or early
80%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 700 ft, 0.8 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at MCO that day
↑
Arrivals into MCO at that hour are often late
↑
11am departures from DEN are often late
↓
Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
MCO usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
DEN (origin)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
MCO (destination)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 700 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.54 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.