Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Sep 29, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3420
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 6
WN 3420 · BNA → JAX
departs 10:28 AM CT · arrives 1:03 PM ET
Forecast issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 48h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Tue 10/6
Wed 10/7 7%
Odds over time
Arrive at JAX more than 15 minutes late?
10%
chance · ±1 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
10%
Leave 15+ late
8%
Arrive 1h+ late
2%
Cancelled
7%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
4.0d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at JAX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Leave BNA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Arrive at JAX more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
How late will it get to JAX?
On time or early
84%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
<1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
7%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Gusts to 29 kt, cloud base down to 500 ft, 2.4 in of rain forecast at JAX that day
↑
This flight has been late 25% of the time recently
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at BNA
↓
Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
BNA (origin)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
JAX (destination)
Gusts 29 kt Ceiling 500 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip 2.40 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.