WN 3421 · PHX → MCI

departs 6:34 PM MT · arrives 11:11 PM CT

Forecast issued Tue 11:00 AM ET · 11h before departure

Arrive at MCI more than 15 minutes late?

31% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to MCI?

On time or early
69%
15–30 min late
17%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 6pm departures from PHX are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ WN's recent on-time record

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHX

Weather at each end

PHX (origin) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

MCI (destination) Gusts15 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility9 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 3421 · PHX → MCI

Odds over time

How late will it get to MCI?