Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Sep 29, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3442
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 6 Tomorrow
WN 3442 · SMF → DEN
departs 1:57 PM PT · arrives 5:23 PM MT
Forecast issued Mon 10:00 AM ET · 31h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Tue 10/6
Wed 10/7 9%
Odds over time
Arrive at DEN more than 15 minutes late?
11%
chance · ±1 pts
+2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
11%
Leave 15+ late
22%
Arrive 1h+ late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
4.2d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DEN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Leave SMF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 21% · changed +7 pts in 24h
+7 pts
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Arrive at DEN more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 100%
How late will it get to DEN?
On time or early
88%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
<1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into DEN at that hour are often late
↑
Early flights usually leave on time
↑
DEN is busy at that time
↓
Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at DEN
Weather at each end
SMF (origin)
Gusts 7 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
DEN (destination)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.