Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Sep 29, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3504
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 6
WN 3504 · SFO → DEN
departs 1:35 PM PT · arrives 4:56 PM MT
Forecast issued Sun 3:00 PM ET · 50h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Tue 10/6
Wed 10/7 23%
Odds over time
Arrive at DEN more than 15 minutes late?
30%
chance · ±3 pts
−2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
30%
Leave 15+ late
21%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
4.2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DEN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 20% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
30%
Yes 30%
No 70%
Leave SFO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 17% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
21%
Yes 21%
No 79%
Arrive at DEN more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to DEN?
On time or early
70%
15–30 min late
20%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into DEN at that hour are often late
↑
This flight has been late 39% of the time recently
↑
1pm departures from SFO are often late
↓
Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at DEN
Weather at each end
SFO (origin)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 0.8 mi Precip none
DEN (destination)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.