Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Sep 29, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3521
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 6
WN 3521 · SRQ → MCO
departs 4:50 PM ET · arrives 5:41 PM ET
Forecast issued Sun 10:00 AM ET · 55h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Tue 10/6
Wed 10/7 11%
Odds over time
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
35%
chance · ±7 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
35%
Leave 15+ late
26%
Arrive 1h+ late
14%
Cancelled
4%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
4.2d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed – in 24h
–
35%
Yes 35%
No 65%
Leave SRQ more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed – in 24h
–
26%
Yes 26%
No 74%
Arrive at MCO more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed – in 24h
–
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
How late will it get to MCO?
On time or early
62%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
6%
Cancelled
4%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 700 ft, 0.9 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at MCO that day
↑
0.8 in of rain forecast at SRQ that day
↑
Arrivals into MCO at that hour are often late
↓
Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
MCO usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
SRQ (origin)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 6 mi Precip 0.57 in
MCO (destination)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip 0.78 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.