Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Sep 29, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3797
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 6
WN 3797 · SRQ → MCO
departs 7:01 AM ET · arrives 7:52 AM ET
Forecast issued Sun 7:00 AM ET · 48h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Tue 10/6
Wed 10/7 2%
Odds over time
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
3%
chance · ±1 pts
−2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
3%
Leave 15+ late
2%
Arrive 1h+ late
1%
Cancelled
1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
3%
6%
9%
12%
3.8d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Leave SRQ more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
Arrive at MCO more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MCO?
On time or early
96%
15–30 min late
<1%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
<1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 700 ft, 0.9 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at MCO that day
↑
0.8 in of rain forecast at SRQ that day
↑
Other factors
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
7am departures from SRQ are usually not late
Weather at each end
SRQ (origin)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 6 mi Precip 0.85 in
MCO (destination)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip 0.88 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.