Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Sep 29, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3813
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 6
WN 3813 · STL → BWI
departs 1:26 PM CT · arrives 4:35 PM ET
Forecast issued Sat 6:00 PM ET · 68h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Tue 10/6
Wed 10/7 8%
Odds over time
Arrive at BWI more than 15 minutes late?
6%
chance · ±1 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
6%
Leave 15+ late
11%
Arrive 1h+ late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
3%
6%
9%
12%
4.1d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BWI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed – in 24h
–
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Leave STL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed – in 24h
–
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Arrive at BWI more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed – in 24h
–
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to BWI?
On time or early
93%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
1pm departures from STL are often late
↑
Arrivals into BWI at that hour are often late
↑
Other factors
↓
Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at STL
Weather at each end
STL (origin)
Gusts 7 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
BWI (destination)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.