WN 3867 · TPA → BUF

departs 10:38 AM ET · arrives 1:21 PM ET

Forecast issued Mon 9:00 PM ET · 14h before departure

Arrive at BUF more than 15 minutes late?

14% chance · ±2 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to BUF?

On time or early
85%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 800 ft, 0.9 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at TPA that day

↑ WN's recent on-time record

↑ Arrivals into BUF at that hour are often late

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

Weather at each end

TPA (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceiling900 ft Visibility9 mi Precip0.75 in

BUF (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 3867 · TPA → BUF

Odds over time

How late will it get to BUF?