Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Sep 29, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3907
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 6
WN 3907 · TPA → AUS
departs 4:15 PM ET · arrives 5:47 PM CT
Forecast issued Sun 9:00 AM ET · 55h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Tue 10/6
Wed 10/7 9%
Odds over time
Arrive at AUS more than 15 minutes late?
19%
chance · ±5 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
19%
Leave 15+ late
23%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
2%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
4.2d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at AUS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed – in 24h
–
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Leave TPA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed – in 24h
–
23%
Yes 23%
No 77%
Arrive at AUS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed – in 24h
–
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to AUS?
On time or early
80%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
0.9 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at TPA that day
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Other factors
↓
Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
WN's recent on-time record
Weather at each end
TPA (origin)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 500 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.92 in
AUS (destination)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.