Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Sep 29, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3909
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 6
WN 3909 · TPA → BNA
departs 11:50 AM ET · arrives 12:43 PM CT
Forecast issued Sun 3:00 PM ET · 45h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Tue 10/6
Wed 10/7 8%
Odds over time
Arrive at BNA more than 15 minutes late?
13%
chance · ±1 pts
−1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
13%
Leave 15+ late
14%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
4.0d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BNA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Leave TPA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Arrive at BNA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to BNA?
On time or early
86%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 800 ft, 0.9 in of rain forecast at TPA that day
↑
This flight has been late 24% of the time recently
↓
Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at BNA
Weather at each end
TPA (origin)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 800 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip 0.56 in
BNA (destination)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.