Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Sep 29, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3951
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 6
WN 3951 · TPA → PIT
departs 6:09 PM ET · arrives 8:30 PM ET
Forecast issued Sun 6:00 AM ET · 60h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Tue 10/6
Wed 10/7 12%
Odds over time
Arrive at PIT more than 15 minutes late?
34%
chance · ±5 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
34%
Leave 15+ late
32%
Arrive 1h+ late
13%
Cancelled
1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
4.3d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at PIT more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed – in 24h
–
34%
Yes 34%
No 66%
Leave TPA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed – in 24h
–
32%
Yes 32%
No 68%
Arrive at PIT more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed – in 24h
–
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to PIT?
On time or early
65%
15–30 min late
16%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
6%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
0.9 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at TPA that day
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
6pm departures from TPA are often late
↓
Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
TPA usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
TPA (origin)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 2,900 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.93 in
PIT (destination)
Gusts 5 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 9 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.