Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Sep 29, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3956
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 6
WN 3956 · TPA → SAT
departs 3:46 PM ET · arrives 5:22 PM CT
Forecast issued Sun 5:00 AM ET · 59h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Tue 10/6
Wed 10/7 11%
Odds over time
Arrive at SAT more than 15 minutes late?
28%
chance · ±10 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
28%
Leave 15+ late
25%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
4.2d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SAT more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed – in 24h
–
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Leave TPA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed – in 24h
–
25%
Yes 25%
No 75%
Arrive at SAT more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed – in 24h
–
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SAT?
On time or early
71%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
0.9 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at TPA that day
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
SAT is prone to delays
↓
Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SAT
Weather at each end
TPA (origin)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 2,900 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.93 in
SAT (destination)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.