Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Sep 29, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3960
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 6
WN 3960 · SDF → TPA
departs 12:50 PM ET · arrives 3:05 PM ET
Forecast issued Sun 11:00 AM ET · 50h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Tue 10/6
Wed 10/7 11%
Odds over time
Arrive at TPA more than 15 minutes late?
13%
chance · ±3 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
13%
Leave 15+ late
17%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
3%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
4.0d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at TPA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed – in 24h
–
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Leave SDF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed – in 24h
–
17%
Yes 17%
No 83%
Arrive at TPA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed – in 24h
–
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
How late will it get to TPA?
On time or early
85%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
3%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 500 ft, 0.9 in of rain forecast at TPA that day
↓
Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SDF
Weather at each end
SDF (origin)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
TPA (destination)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 500 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.92 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.