Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Sep 29, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4003
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 6
WN 4003 · BWI → ORF
departs 2:04 PM ET · arrives 3:03 PM ET
Forecast issued Sat 6:00 PM ET · 68h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Tue 10/6
Wed 10/7 12%
Odds over time
Arrive at ORF more than 15 minutes late?
8%
chance · ±1 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
8%
Leave 15+ late
10%
Arrive 1h+ late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
3%
6%
9%
12%
4.1d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ORF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed – in 24h
–
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Leave BWI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed – in 24h
–
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Arrive at ORF more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed – in 24h
–
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to ORF?
On time or early
91%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Other factors
↑
2pm departures from BWI are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at BWI
Weather at each end
BWI (origin)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
ORF (destination)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.