Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Sep 29, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4014
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 6
WN 4014 · TPA → FLL
departs 6:03 PM ET · arrives 7:04 PM ET
Forecast issued Sun 5:00 AM ET · 61h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Mon 10/5 31%
Tue 10/6
Wed 10/7 19%
Fri 10/9 32%
Odds over time
Arrive at FLL more than 15 minutes late?
50%
chance · ±12 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
50%
Leave 15+ late
45%
Arrive 1h+ late
13%
Cancelled
3%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
4.3d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at FLL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed – in 24h
–
50%
Yes 50%
No 50%
Leave TPA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 18% · changed – in 24h
–
45%
Yes 45%
No 55%
Arrive at FLL more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed – in 24h
–
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
How late will it get to FLL?
On time or early
48%
15–30 min late
23%
30 min–1 hour late
13%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
8%
Cancelled
3%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
0.9 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at TPA that day
↑
0.3 in of rain forecast at FLL that day
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
TPA usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
TPA (origin)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 2,900 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.93 in
FLL (destination)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 10,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.33 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.