Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Sep 29, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4087
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 6
WN 4087 · FAT → SAN
departs 3:57 PM PT · arrives 5:13 PM PT
Forecast issued Sun 1:00 PM ET · 54h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Tue 10/6
Wed 10/7 20%
Odds over time
Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?
22%
chance · ±3 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
22%
Leave 15+ late
17%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
4.3d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed – in 24h
–
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Leave FAT more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed – in 24h
–
17%
Yes 17%
No 83%
Arrive at SAN more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed – in 24h
–
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SAN?
On time or early
78%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
This flight has been late 26% of the time recently
↑
SAN is prone to delays
↑
Arrivals into SAN at that hour are often late
↓
Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
WN's recent on-time record
Weather at each end
FAT (origin)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
SAN (destination)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 2 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.