Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Sep 29, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4202
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 6
WN 4202 · MCO → DAL
departs 6:28 PM ET · arrives 8:03 PM CT
Forecast issued Sun 11:00 AM ET · 56h before departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at DAL more than 15 minutes late?
37%
chance · ±5 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
37%
Leave 15+ late
42%
Arrive 1h+ late
12%
Cancelled
3%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
4.3d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DAL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed – in 24h
–
37%
Yes 37%
No 63%
Leave MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed – in 24h
–
42%
Yes 42%
No 58%
Arrive at DAL more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed – in 24h
–
12%
Yes 12%
No 88%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
How late will it get to DAL?
On time or early
62%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
6%
Cancelled
3%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 600 ft, 0.8 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at MCO that day
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
6pm departures from MCO are often late
↓
Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at DAL
Weather at each end
MCO (origin)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip 0.78 in
DAL (destination)
Gusts 7 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.