Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Sep 29, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4230
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 6
WN 4230 · HOU → FLL
departs 6:20 PM CT · arrives 9:46 PM ET
Forecast issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 47h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Tue 10/6
Wed 10/7 17%
Sat 10/10 20%
Odds over time
Arrive at FLL more than 15 minutes late?
22%
chance · ±3 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
22%
Leave 15+ late
26%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
4.3d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at FLL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Leave HOU more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 19% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
26%
Yes 26%
No 74%
Arrive at FLL more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to FLL?
On time or early
77%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at FLL
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
This flight has been late 32% of the time recently
↓
Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at HOU
Weather at each end
HOU (origin)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 3,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
FLL (destination)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling 9,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.15 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.