WN 4230 · SAN → LAS

departs 3:18 PM PT · arrives 4:42 PM PT

Forecast issued Tue 2:00 PM ET · 4h before departure

Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?

37% chance · ±0 pts +10 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to LAS?

On time or early
63%
15–30 min late
23%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 3pm departures from SAN are often late

↑ SAN is prone to delays

↑ This flight has been late 33% of the time recently

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LAS

Weather at each end

SAN (origin) Gusts14 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

LAS (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 4230 · SAN → LAS

Odds over time

How late will it get to LAS?