WN 4296 · AUS → LAS

departs 12:00 PM CT · arrives 12:56 PM PT

Your aircraft is N8729H (B38M), coming in as WN 2238 from LAS: in the air, landing about 10:39 AM CT, 76 min before departure.

Forecast issued Tue 10:00 AM ET · 3h before departure

Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?

23% chance · ±0 pts +4 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to LAS?

On time or early
83%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 12pm departures from AUS are often late

↑ LAS is prone to delays

↑ This flight has been late 25% of the time recently

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LAS

Weather at each end

AUS (origin) Gusts13 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

LAS (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 4296 · AUS → LAS

Odds over time

How late will it get to LAS?