Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Sep 29, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 430
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 6
WN 430 · EUG → SAN
departs 1:00 PM PT · arrives 3:15 PM PT
Forecast issued Sun 7:00 PM ET · 45h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Tue 10/6
Wed 10/7 17%
Odds over time
Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?
20%
chance · ±3 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
20%
Leave 15+ late
20%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
4.2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
20%
Yes 20%
No 80%
Leave EUG more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
20%
Yes 20%
No 80%
Arrive at SAN more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SAN?
On time or early
79%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
SAN is prone to delays
↑
Other factors
↑
Arrivals into SAN at that hour are often late
↓
Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Visibility down to 2 mi forecast at SAN that day
Weather at each end
EUG (origin)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 0.5 mi Precip none
SAN (destination)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 3 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.