WN 4374 · SMF → SAN

departs 9:48 AM PT · arrives 11:24 AM PT

Forecast issued Tue 2:00 AM ET · 11h before departure

Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?

28% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SAN?

On time or early
72%
15–30 min late
22%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ SAN is prone to delays

↑ Arrivals into SAN at that hour are often late

↑ This flight has been late 22% of the time recently

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SAN

Weather at each end

SMF (origin) Gusts7 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SAN (destination) Gusts15 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 4374 · SMF → SAN

Odds over time

How late will it get to SAN?