WN 4405 · MCO → PHX

departs 8:22 PM ET · arrives 10:01 PM MT

Forecast issued Mon 10:00 PM ET · 22h before departure

Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?

37% chance · ±3 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to PHX?

On time or early
62%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
11%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 700 ft, 1.1 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at MCO that day

↑ 8pm departures from MCO are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHX

Weather at each end

MCO (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceiling700 ft Visibility7 mi Precip0.37 in

PHX (destination) Gusts12 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 4405 · MCO → PHX

Odds over time

How late will it get to PHX?