WN 4409 · OAK → DEN

took off 12:36 PM PT · expected to land 3:34 PM MT (scheduled 11:50 AM PT → 3:18 PM MT)

Forecast issued Tue 2:00 PM ET · 1h before departure

Arrive at DEN more than 15 minutes late?

83% chance · ±0 pts −2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to DEN?

LIVE

On time or early
17%
15–30 min late
54%
30 min–1 hour late
29%
1–2 hours late
<1%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into DEN at that hour are often late

↑ This flight has been late 26% of the time recently

↑ OAK is prone to delays

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DEN

Weather at each end

OAK (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

DEN (destination) Gusts11 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 4409 · OAK → DEN

Odds over time

How late will it get to DEN?